Will Weather Make Holiday Travel Merry or Miserable?

During the holiday season millions take to the roads, rails, and skies to reunite with loved ones or head off on getaways. But winter weather can throw a wrench into even the best-laid plans. Snowstorms, icy roads, and flight disruptions often peak during this busy travel period, turning what should be joyful journeys into stressful scrambles. While the timing of individual storms is challenging, this year will feature a series of fast-moving storms across the country that will challenge transportation departments, as well as aviation and airport managers.

 
This year will feature a series of fast-moving storms across the country that will challenge transportation departments, as well as aviation and airport managers.

Record Numbers Planning Holiday Travel

This year approximately 119 million Americans are expected to travel 50 miles or more from December 23 to January 1. This marks a 3.3% increase over the previous year and sets a record for year-end travel volume. With such a significant number of people traveling, winter weather conditions can pose substantial challenges, potentially leading to delays and disruptions across various modes of transportation.

 

Atmospheric Rivers and a Holiday Warm-Up

Unlike last year, when mild Pacific air predominantly dominated the holiday travel season, this year promises a significant departure in weather patterns for the week leading up to Christmas. The El Niño event that influenced last year’s mild conditions across much of the country is no longer in effect. Instead, a more traditional winter weather pattern will set the stage, bringing a mix of challenges and opportunities for holiday travelers.

Regions across the United States will experience diverse weather impacts. The West Coast is preparing for atmospheric rivers—narrow yet intense corridors of moisture in the atmosphere. These systems are poised to bring heavy rainfall and significant mountain snow to California, Oregon, and Washington.

While these precipitation events are crucial for replenishing water supplies, they also pose risks such as landslides, flash flooding, and hazardous travel conditions on key highways and in urban areas. With new storms arriving every 2-3 days, residents and travelers in these areas will need to stay alert and plan for possible disruptions.

As these storms move inland, their impact will ripple across the country. Rain and thunderstorms are expected in the southern U.S., adding challenges for travelers on major routes. Meanwhile, the Northern Plains and parts of the Midwest will brace for snow, creating slick roads and potential delays at regional airports. The Northeast and portions of New England will also experience wintry conditions, but the snow is expected to largely bypass major metropolitan coastal cities like New York and Boston.

However, the weather pattern will shift dramatically around Christmas Day. Mild Pacific air will spread across most of the country, offering some relief to holiday travelers heading home. Central and eastern states will experience unseasonably warm temperatures, soaring 10 to 20 degrees above normal. This warmth will help to alleviate icy road conditions and reduce delays caused by winter weather, providing a much-needed reprieve for those on the move.

This atmospheric flip is expected to cap off a year marked by record-breaking warmth in many areas. For those weary of wintry disruptions, the milder weather during this critical travel period will feel like a welcome gift, ensuring smoother journeys and more pleasant holiday gatherings.

 

Predictive Weather Technologies for Ground, Air Travel

This type of weather volatility puts meteorologists and others on alert to ensure that travel happens smoothly and safely, whether on the road or in the air.

Holiday travel marks a pivotal point in the winter season, and the shifting weather patterns during this time can bring unexpected challenges.

Keeping roads safe during these early-season ice or snow events can be challenging for transportation agencies. Hyperlocal road forecasts are particularly beneficial in early-season weather events because of consistent freezing along the road network. Often in November and December, the subsurface temperatures will keep pavement temperatures warm and create icy conditions when met with colder air and surface temperatures. At night, when temperatures cool, or even when environmental factors such as tall buildings, vegetation, or valleys impact roads, the road can ice in certain sections. Using hyperlocal weather forecasts to inform decision-making ensures that transportation agencies are prepared for cold weather, which can come quickly, as we have already seen this autumn.

Resource planning is also important for airport operations. Much like the transportation agencies, airport operations teams need to prepare for the inevitable extreme weather. The cold weather presents many challenges, especially when layered on top of the record travel that will happen in the coming weeks. Airports are checking to ensure deicing solution storage is accessible and the right supply level is on hand in the right locations.

Operations leaders are also looking at forecasts and working to provide extra crews, and contractors are on call for snow-clearing and deicing efforts if needed.

Whether traveling by car or air, those working to make travel safe and efficient will monitor weather conditions and make real-time decisions to ensure the routes are as efficient as possible.

Holiday travel marks a pivotal point in the winter season, and the shifting weather patterns during this time can bring unexpected challenges. Those responsible for maintaining public safety during the busy holiday period will closely track forecasts and adapt strategies as we navigate the heart of the winter months.

Watch the DTN U.S. Winter Outlook webinar to learn more the winter outlook.