European Weather Outlook: Early Spring 2025

Although a stubborn high-pressure pattern with subdued temperatures in western-central and eastern-south-eastern Europe will gain influence over larger parts of Europe in the next few weeks, there could still be an active Atlantic pattern later on with a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) trend again towards the end of February and into March, the risk of intense low-pressure systems causing heavy rainfall and strong winds, possibly leading to disruptive weather, esp. in NW Europe (UK/Ireland).

The stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) will temporarily weaken until around mid-February, followed by a stronger recovery. However, since there is a persistent and stronger low-pressure signal near Greenland (as feedback from a strong SPV), the likelihood of stronger downstream high-pressure ridging could be greater.

The latest ECMWF weather regime probability forecast (see below) shows an almost uniform high pressure block regime for the next few weeks. It also shows a recurring positive NAO background flow, starting after mid-month.

The main frontal zone should in any case move further north than the climatological average, especially in the eastern North Atlantic-Scandinavian region. There is even a risk of an Arctic cold snap after mid-February (e.g. perhaps in central-eastern but mainly across northern and north-eastern Europe), which is consistent with increased negative NAO regime probabilities in the forecast.

So, opposing trends could occur at the same time, namely a negative NAO ridge in the eastern North Atlantic tilted towards Greenland. On the other hand, a stronger recovery of the SPV could lead to a stronger positive NAO, which returns later in the month and into March.

An effective way of looking at the above-mentioned weather patterns is with the ECMWF’s Weather Regime Probabilities chart, below.

 

What about March? And April?

Above-average temperatures are most probable through March, with a positive NAO regime at first. A still active jet stream and frontal zone could be shifted northward of the climate mean, on average, in line with higher pressure at mid-latitudes.

There are mixed signals for positive NAO and high-pressure blocking regimes, and a split jet stream is possible at times. Blocking is unlikely to materialize at high latitudes for there to be any widespread, long-lived significant cold outbreaks, which are a low risk until around mid-month.

However, the predicted set-up could lead to cut-off low pressure systems held southwards in and around the Mediterranean and south-eastern Europe/Turkey, which could suppress temperature anomalies here at times.

The expected state of the SPV plays an important role here. The SPV should remain stronger-than-usual in the first half of March. See below ECMWF’s zonal mean zonal wind sub-seasonal outlook at 10hPa/60N, until around 20 March.

 

Later in March, early April

A developing weaker than normal SPV and/or an even earlier than usual final stratospheric warming—which seems possible in terms of an ongoing stronger-than-usual SPV during the previous winter period—could lead to more frequent high latitude high pressure blockings in the North Atlantic and/ or Scandinavian/Ural sector (see the predicted stronger positive temperature anomalies in those parts), which harbors the risk of colder weather in other parts. In view of this trend, the less positive temperature anomalies in parts of the European mainland seems plausible.

 

Bottom line

With a recovering and ongoing stronger-than-usual SVP and mostly positive NAO expected to continue, there should be low risks of any notable or prolonged cold periods across Europe through late February and early March, with most areas having above normal temperatures. However, an earlier-than-usual final warming could be a factor in increasing the risks of colder outbreaks by April.

The latest temperature, precipitation, and wind departure forecasts for March and April are below.

 

Conclusion 

Milder southwest to westerly flows at first in March, mainly across northern and north-western Europe, which will be wetter and windier than normal, especially UK to Scandinavia. Later in March and into April, a drier and calmer trend in many areas, incl. the mentioned colder risks at times.

 

About the author

Dr. Jens Bonewitz

Dr. Jens Bonewitz is an experienced long-range energy meteorologist at DTN. He consults with utility and renewable energy clients to help plan and prepare for the impact of weather. He combines research and its practical applications to produce meaningful weather forecasts within the S2S range.