European Weather Outlook until January 2025

Still a milder outlook

Over the next two weeks temperature fluctuations are likely to continue as shown on the DTN temperature anomaly forecast charts below.

 

Nevertheless, December may still end up mostly milder than average. See, too, the latest DTN temperature forecast chart below.

 

Temperature anomalies could be less positive in parts of northwestern, northern, and larger parts of western-southwestern and central-southern Europe. Colder than average conditions are possible in the far northwest and far southeast Europe. The latter is due to the ongoing risk of colder spells likely to infiltrate various parts of Europe.

 

Interestingly, more pronounced positive wind anomalies continue to occur over large parts of the UK and northern parts of western and central-eastern Europe, as well as western parts of Scandinavia. This is consistent with the most likely storm track for the rest of December.

 

Prospects for January 2025

A widespread milder pattern during January 2025 is still more likely across Europe. However, a weak La Nina is developing, whose long-term effects could be stronger due to a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event continuing during early December.

If the latter is combined with a partially northward shifted frontal zone (a NAO positive-like pattern, shifted northwards from the canonical position) then more frequent high-pressure blockings could occur in the North Atlantic sector (including also the Fennoscandia and/or Ural region). Furthermore, a generally wavier or at times weaker westerly jet stream would explain the ongoing risk of occasional cold spells in various parts of Europe.

Another crucial factor is the state of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex (SPV) in boreal winter that appears to be returning to average strength in January after being significantly stronger than usual.

In summary, the above factors would be associated with milder-than-average monthly means – especially in the northern part of the continent and wetter (and windier)-than-average likely in the north and drier-than-average in the south. However, colder spells are possible. The latest temperature, precipitation and wind departures can be found below.

 

About the author

Dr. Jens Bonewitz

Dr. Jens Bonewitz is an experienced long-range energy meteorologist at DTN. He consults with utility and renewable energy clients to help plan and prepare for the impact of weather. He combines research and its practical applications to produce meaningful weather forecasts within the S2S range.