European Weather Outlook: Late Winter 2025

Trend for late winter and early spring

February and at least early March should be milder than normal…

There is little sign of any notable or sustained cold periods occurring anywhere in Europe to end the winter. Indeed, during February the east and northeast of the continent should experience above to well-above average temperatures, while western and northwestern regions have more variability with a few transient colder passages.

Nevertheless, temperatures should be near or a little above average overall. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a clue to what is expected to happen. It is a measure of the pressure difference between Iceland and the Azores. A negative NAO would mean higher-than-normal sea-level pressure near Iceland and lower towards the Azores, and vice-versa.

We are expecting the ‘vice-versa’ – a positive or even strongly positive NAO pattern, with lower pressure than normal at high latitudes, and higher in the mid-latitudes. This should lead to the main frontal zone being, on average, farther north than usual, allowing for high pressure blocks at times across Europe, as soon as early February, although there is little risk of these being able to drive in frigid air.

However, with winter-time high pressure there is always the chance of frosty and foggy nights. Frontal systems will return at times, though, bringing occasional wet and windy conditions, chiefly to northwest and northern Europe, while low pressure systems will get cut-off to the south of high pressure and bring some disturbed weather to southeast Europe and the Mediterranean.

The bulk of Europe, however, should see a trend towards drier-than-normal conditions, with wind strengths below average overall.

 

What about March? And April?

Colder risks could increase by April.
Similar conditions could continue into March, meaning that temperatures should be near to above average with the largest anomalies still across eastern areas. The wettest and windiest conditions should be across far northern and northwestern Europe as occasional frontal systems cross northern latitudes, while the Mediterranean could be subject to further low-pressure developments and locally wet, and even thundery, weather.

Much of Europe should be influenced by high pressure moving around. However, as March wears on and turns to April, there could be increasing chances of high pressure settling farther north. Although the probability is for near to above average temperatures in most areas, there is more uncertainty, and this could lead to a greater risk of colder outbreaks developing. This should start to become more apparent when we get closer to the sub-seasonal (four-week) range.

One reason for the positive NAO and the low risk of cold through February and into early March is the state of the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV). This is forecast to stay stronger or much stronger than usual, locking Arctic air up close to the north pole.

The thick blue line in this graph denotes the model average zonal wind speed circulating the SPV, and it is forecast to remain well above average (the thick red line) through to early March.

 

Looking into the technicalities for a moment, this is consistent with the developing weak La Niña in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, and with the current positive phase of the Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO), a measure of stratospheric winds above the tropics.

These are two of the far-reaching phenomena, called ‘teleconnections,’ that can affect atmospheric patterns around the globe.

These two are not the be-all and end-all, though, and there are other influences that can also disturb circulations, sometimes across shorter periods. Most notably, areas of strong convection circulating the tropics can cause occasional weakening of the SPV and might bring about temporary negative NAO regimes.

However, this should be insufficient to have much of an impact through February and even into March, struggling against this particularly strong SPV.

Another factor to consider with La Niña is that it can also sometimes favour high pressure blocks, as already noted, and higher amplitude waves in the jet stream across the North Atlantic and into Europe. By April, or even a bit earlier in March, there is a risk that some of this blocking could manifest at more northerly latitudes, which brings greater risks of pushing colder air southwards at times – although exactly where is impossible to pinpoint this far ahead!

Suffice to say, this could become more of a risk, especially as there are chances that the SPV could weaken (during what is known as its ‘final warming’ of the season. It regularly does so as we head into the warmer half of the year, but that process could begin earlier than usual this year.

An effective way of looking at forecast patterns is with the ECMWF’s Weather Regime Probabilities chart, below:

 

Against a background of a positive NAO (blue bars) through February, there are blocked regime probabilities emerging (red bars), supporting the notion of occasional high-pressure blocks and a more north-south amplified jet stream, which could bring occasional active low pressure systems to north and northwest Europe.

Also note some low probabilities of negative NAO (green) and Atlantic ridge (purple) patterns, which would support colder outbreaks. To reiterate, these currently have low probability through February and into early March but as we edge further through spring, those greens and purples might just become more evident.

BOTTOM LINE: With a strong stratospheric polar vortex and positive North Atlantic Oscillation expected to continue, there should be low risks of any notable or prolonged cold periods across Europe through February and into March, with most areas having near or above normal temperatures. However, an earlier-than-usual final warming could be a factor in increasing the risks of colder outbreaks by April.

The latest temperature, precipitation, and wind departure forecasts for February and March are below.

Want to get additional weather insights? Watch our seasonal outlook series.

 

About the author

Dr. Jens Bonewitz

Dr. Jens Bonewitz is an experienced long-range energy meteorologist at DTN. He consults with utility and renewable energy clients to help plan and prepare for the impact of weather. He combines research and its practical applications to produce meaningful weather forecasts within the S2S range.