Updated European weather outlook until May and into June

While the outlook suggests larger parts of Europe will still end up warmer-than-usual, confidence in warmer-than-normal temperatures is higher across north-western, northern and north-eastern parts of Europe. Elsewhere, temperatures could be closer to, or temporarily below, the seasonal average due to the Arctic outbreak of colder air continuing in parts.

The latter is likely to bring late overnight frosts to parts of central-eastern and south-eastern Europe, with possible spells of snow.

In late April and into May, the major stratospheric warming (SSW)/the postulated final stratospheric warming (FSW) from the 9th of March and other tropospheric variability could lead to more frequent high-pressure blockings. This poses a risk of cooler and drier weather in the North Atlantic-Scandinavian/Ural sector and supports ongoing good solar yields. Given this trend, the less positive or near-average temperature anomalies in parts of mainland Europe seem plausible. Positive NAO and especially positive AO patterns may occur at times making the forecast mixed. Outbreaks of colder air of Arctic origin are conceivable even through early May and are mainly associated with late overnight frosts.

A generally drier but not necessarily calmer pattern could continue later in May, with temperatures slightly above the average values for this time of the year.

The latest temperature, precipitation, and wind departure forecasts for May are shown below.

 

First thoughts on the European summer

A drier pattern could continue in June, along with the first hints of early heat stress and increasing regional drought risk, especially in parts of central-eastern and parts of south-eastern Europe. This is in line with low soil moisture in spring. High-pressure influence could prevail across parts of central or northern Europe and/or in parts of the eastern North Atlantic.

These weather patterns could recur during the upcoming European summer, further exaggerating drought and heat wave risks.

The latest temperature, precipitation, and wind departure forecasts for June are as shown below.

 

Bottom line

Cooler or colder snaps are possible in late April and May, with dry weather or close to average precipitation. The risk of sharper late Arctic outbreaks could bring late overnight frosts. However, it could get somewhat wetter and windier at times, especially across northwestern and northern/north-eastern Europe and parts of the Mediterranean. There is an increasing drought risk later in spring and signs of early heat stress in parts in June.

 

About the author

Dr. Jens Bonewitz

Dr. Jens Bonewitz is an experienced long-range energy meteorologist at DTN. He consults with utility and renewable energy clients to help plan and prepare for the impact of weather. He combines research and its practical applications to produce meaningful weather forecasts within the S2S range.