European Weather Outlook for February 2025

The European Weather Trend Forecast for February 2025

February is forecast to be milder than usual across much of Europe.

A widespread milder pattern during February 2025 seems more likely. However, a northward-shifted frontal zone, or a northward-shifted positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) signal, with lower-than-usual mean sea level pressure (MSLP) at high latitudes and higher-than-usual MSLP at mid-latitudes can lead to more frequent high-pressure blockings in the North Atlantic – Europe sector.

This harbors the risk of colder, or at least more blocked, spells, including complicated high-over-low patterns with possible temperature reversals, i.e. lingering low pressure across southeastern or southern Europe and parts of the Mediterranean basin.

Northwest, north, and at times southeast Europe, remain at the highest risk of near-seasonal or even temporary lower-than-average temperatures. The significant cold spell in the UK and Scandinavia at the beginning of January is a good example of what is possible, and February could be quite similar.

 

Why should February be like January?

Well, the ingredients are comparable. The stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) appears to remain stronger than usual.

 

A stronger SPV seems more likely with a continuing positive Quasi-Biennale-Oscillation (QBO) and an ongoing weak La Niña event. Uncertainty arises from the strength and progressivity of the Madden-Julian-Oscillation (MJO), especially in phases 5/6, leading to an extended Pacific jet stream.

This could temporarily weaken the SPV or lead to periods of negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) with an enhanced risk of cold spells.  However, the forecast stronger-than-usual SPV favors a brisk and milder southwest to westerly flow in the North Atlantic – European sector.

By contrast, the unusually strong SPV, in addition to the La Niña effect, contributes to an increased risk of stronger cold air outbreaks in parts of North America, as we have recently seen and may see again later in January.

The other major factor in atmospheric cuisine is the ENSO state. We are observing a weak La Niña development, which could reach peak at the end of January and early February. This would have a stronger impact on North America than on the North Atlantic. Nevertheless, a weak La Niña could favor more frequent high-pressure blockings, or at least a wavier jet stream, in the North Atlantic.

QBO and MJO have already been mentioned briefly above, although it must always be said that many factors only cause or intensify certain feedback when they interact.

A final look at the predicted probabilities for the occurrence of certain weather regimes, see ECMWF’s W.R.F. below.

 

A positive NAO index, or governing weather regime, is likely to prevail from mid-January to late February 2025, albeit with intermittent European high-pressure blocking features. The latter could be embedded within periods of an active North Atlantic pattern.

This harbors the risk of further disruptive weather at times, such as intense low-pressure systems delivering strong winds and heavy precipitation, especially in the UK, and parts of western-central and northern Europe), with a mostly milder background flow. This could be possible feedback from an ongoing SPV.

As mentioned above, there are also hints of periods with European high-pressure blocking or Atlantic ridge regimes (AtR). As one can see from the W.R.F. forecast, negative NAO weather patterns (with a sustained colder risk) are less likely but not ruled out.

BOTTOM LINE: A stronger-than-usual SPV would favor a brisk and milder southwest to westerly flow in the North Atlantic – European sector, but other factors may lead to some colder interludes.

The latest temperature, precipitation, and wind departures can be found below.

 

About the author

Dr. Jens Bonewitz

Dr. Jens Bonewitz is an experienced long-range energy meteorologist at DTN. He consults with utility and renewable energy clients to help plan and prepare for the impact of weather. He combines research and its practical applications to produce meaningful weather forecasts within the S2S range.