The updated European weather trend in April and early May 2025

While the outlook suggests larger parts of Europe will still end up milder-than-usual, confidence in warmer-than-normal temperatures is higher across northeastern and eastern parts of Europe. Elsewhere, temperatures could be closer to the seasonal average or temporarily even below average, e.g. the UK, southwestern, western and even parts of central Europe. Through April and into May, the major-sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event from the 9th of March could lead to more frequent high-pressure blockings (including at high latitudes) in the North Atlantic-Scandinavian/Ural sector. This poses a risk of cooler or colder weather in other parts of Europe.

Given this trend, near-average temperature anomalies in these parts of mainland Europe seem more plausible. Since we are likely to note the major-SSW as the final stratospheric warming, there could be a better coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere in April. This is consistent with the formation of an Arctic/Greenland high pressure pattern as depicted by the weather forecast models and in line with the negative phase of the North Atlantic (NAO) and Arctic oscillation (AO).

Cooler and colder periods are likely, but there is also a possibility that positive periods of the NAO might occur in between. See the probabilities of weather patterns predicted by ECMWF’s W.R.F. below. Given this trend, the forecast trend is mixed with outbreaks of colder Arctic air possible in early May. These are usually associated with late overnight frosts.

However, the continued tendency of high-pressure blockings in all their forms (see the solid red bars at the EC’s W.R.F.) suggests a more settled and somewhat drier and calmer weather character prevailing across the European mainland and the UK. The latter is good news for solar power outputs but also subdues wind power yields. Nevertheless, winds could be stronger in northern portions of Europe, and occasionally in parts of the Mediterranean, especially across Iberia.

Source: ECMWF

 

Ongoing drier-than-usual conditions in February and March have led to low soil moisture in parts of Europe. Drier conditions through early spring are likely to affect hydro power yields and water run-off from the Alps (combined with low snow cover), as well as agricultural planning.

Source: NCEP

 

The latest temperature, precipitation, and wind departure forecasts for April are below.

 

First thought on the European summer

A generally drier pattern could continue into June and July, along with the first hints of early heat stress and increasing regional drought risk, especially in parts of central-eastern and parts of south-eastern Europe. High-pressure influence could prevail across parts of continental Europe or over Fenno-Scandia. It is too early for more details, but such weather patterns are likely to occur repeatedly during the upcoming European summer.

The latest temperature, precipitation, and wind departure forecasts for June are below.

 

Bottom line

Cooler snaps are possible in April and May, with mostly drier or close to average precipitation.  The risk of sharper late Arctic outbreaks could bring colder air and late overnight frosts. However, it could get wetter and windier at times, especially across northwestern and northern/north-eastern Europe and parts of the Mediterranean/Iberia. There is an increasing drought risk later in spring and early heat stress into the summer.

 

About the author

Dr. Jens Bonewitz

Dr. Jens Bonewitz is an experienced long-range energy meteorologist at DTN. He consults with utility and renewable energy clients to help plan and prepare for the impact of weather. He combines research and its practical applications to produce meaningful weather forecasts within the S2S range.